Rummy Was Right
We all remember first hearing the then Secretary Of State for Defence Donald Rumsfeld proclaim ‘There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don’t know. But then there are also unknown unknowns. These are things that we do not know we don’t know’
Rummy was widely ridiculed and lampooned for a while. There was a great sport collecting his sayings and ranking them along the more famous Bushisms.
Reflection indicates that he was of course right and in its way in the statement above is really quite a neat summary of the way the world of information and intelligence works.
We can think of it as ever in terms of a 2 x 2 matrix.
Rummy’s matrix
In relationships in the Johari window and its darker brother Nohari window is a popular way of describing the benefits of feedback and disclosure. The 2 x 2 matrix in this case looks like:
The open area is that part of ourselves in which we are aware and which is known to others. It includes attitudes, behaviour, motivation, values way of life etc. We are literally an open book.
The hidden area cannot be known to others unless we disclose it. Some of this data we retain out of fear and other data we are merely keep to ourselves out of choice. The degree to which we share our thoughts with others (disclosure) is the degree to which this area can be known.
In the blind area there are things about ourselves which we do not know that others can see more clearly than we can. When others offer feedback in a supportive way, we are able to test the new reality of who we are and we should be able to grow and develop.
The unknown area represents the unconscious. It can sometimes be revealed in a flash of insight or through a new and uncharted situation in which we are able to reveal to ourselves and others our hidden depths.
The basic premise of the Johari window is that it is through asking (feedback) and telling (disclosure) our open pane is expanded. We gain access to the knowledge and hence the potential represented by the unknown pane.
The insight provided by Donald Rumsfeld was to articulate what we all know when facing a new situation. Recognising those areas which we know we don’t know and exploring with others what they know what we don’t know should enable the area in the bottom right-hand corner ‘we don’t know that we don’t know’ to shrink. As in relationships making this area, (the unknown area and the blind area) as small as possible by revealing in the open area what we know, should make for better decision-making and more open exchange.
Of course in politics and in conflict we may wish to keep this information strictly within bounds but recognising where those bounds are and recognising where the opponents’ boundaries are is vital in winning the argument or the battle.
Finally the Times reports today that the efficient market hypothesis is dead-for now. This hypothesis asserts that financial markets are informationally efficient hence the price of traded assets, stocks bonds etc already reflect all known information. This leads to the assumption that banks, self interest would prevent them doing anything that would threaten their own survival. Yet look what has happened.
In Rummy’s terms the size of the box containing the ‘unknown unknowns ‘the things that we do not know that we’d do not know’ was much much larger than initially perceived. And more crucially the box containing things ‘we know we know’ proved to be much smaller. This was not just bankers’ knowledge, but politicians, economists, journalists etc.
The moral I guess, besides recognising Rummy as a philosopher of the first order, is to always examine sceptically all of the boxes and when in doubt recognise that those things ‘we know we know, are likely to be many fewer (even if the collective wisdom all points in one direction) than the first examination would suggest.
PS A nice quote from the Ford Learning Network ‘If only Ford knew what Ford knows’ prompted an investment in software which analysed not just text but audio and video from around Ford relevant content is automatically delivered to enable employees to leverage the value of materials and learn about new subject areas quickly and effectively.
Nothing for me used to beat wandering up to someone else’s desk and just having a chat. It will be shame if that dies out. It’s the quirky view of the world which spurs insight and invention.
